EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center|South Sudan's near-upset shows blueprint for Olympic success against US

As exhibition games go,EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center a U.S. loss to South Sudan in a men’s 5x5 2024 Paris Olympic tune-up game would’ve been a bad one.

Not just bad. But embarrassing, too.

The U.S. avoided that with a 101-100 victory against South Sudan Saturday in London.

But it was touch-and-go. South Sudan led by as many 16 points, had a 58-44 halftime lead and still owned a double-digit lead midway through the third quarter. South Sudan led 100-99 with 20 seconds to play and had a chance for a monumental upset on the game’s final shot.

South Sudan gave the U.S. a game and a wake-up call.

The U.S. has LeBron James, Steph Curry, Joel Embiid, Anthony Edwards and Anthony Davis and team full of All-Stars, and South Sudan does not.

James saved the game for the U.S. and prevented an embarrassing loss. He scored the winning basket on a driving layup with eight seconds remaining in the fourth quarter in a dominating FIBA performance: 25 points on 10-for-14 shooting, seven assists and six rebounds.

Embiid had 14 points and seven rebounds, and Edwards had 11 points. Curry added 10 points, and Davis had another double-double with 15 points, 11 rebounds and two blocks.

Still, South Sudan demonstrated what other Olympic medal hopefuls are thinking: in a one-game scenario under FIBA rules (shorter game, fewer possessions, more physical), beating the U.S. is possible. Maybe not likely. But possible.

South Sudan shot 61.1% from the field and 7-for-14 on 3-pointers, and the U.S. shot 41.7% from the field (15-for-36) and 1-for-12 on 3-pointers and committed nine turnovers in the first half. Turnovers have been an issue in the exhibition games for the U.S., a result of putting together a team with no previous experience playing together.

That’s the blueprint for other nations against the U.S., though not easily accomplished: shoot well from the field, especially on 3-pointers, and get the U.S. to have a bad game shooting with a high turnover rate. It’s just difficult to limit that many outstanding players even in a 40-minute game. But it’s not going to stop teams from trying.

South Sudan is in its infancy as a country and getting ready to play in its first Olympics for men’s basketball. Just two players (Wenyen Gabriel and Carlik Jones) have NBA experience, and 17-year-old center Khaman Maluach will play for Duke next season and is a potential lottery pick in the 2025 NBA draft.

The roster is filled with G League and other international league players. But there is talent and direction. Former NBA player Luol Deng is the president of the South Sudan Basketball Federation and an assistant coach for South Sudan head coach Royal Ivey, who played in the NBA.

It’s a team that was not expected to get out of Group C with the U.S., Serbia and Puerto Rico. The U.S. is a massive -500 favorite to wins its fifth consecutive gold medal in Paris, and the South Sudan is +25000 to win gold. That performance though must give South Sudan confidence it can surprise people at the Olympics.

The U.S. and South Sudan will play July 31 in the second group game for both teams. I didn’t think the U.S. needed a wake-up call for these Olympics. Not with the way coach Steve Kerr has talked about how difficult it will be to win gold and not with this roster filled with MVPs and All-Stars.

The U.S. needs to be ready from the start, and falling behind double digits to a more talented team might result in a loss. But if you're looking for positives, the U.S. handled a surprise challenge, played through its struggles without getting too frustrated and won a close game.

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